![]() ![]() ![]() Level of significance is a statistical term for how willing you are to be wrong. Instead of 95 percent confidence intervals, you can also have confidence intervals based on different levels of significance, such as 90 percent or 99 percent. The precise statistical definition of the 95 percent confidence interval is that if the telephone poll were conducted 100 times, 95 times the percent of respondents favoring Bob Dole would be within the calculated confidence intervals and five times the percent favoring Dole would be either higher or lower than the range of the confidence intervals. Conversely, there is a 5 percent chance that fewer than 35.5 percent of voters or more than 42.5 percent of voters would vote for Bob Dole. In the simplest terms, this means that there is a 95 percent chance that between 35.5 percent and 42.5 percent of voters would vote for Bob Dole (39 percent plus or minus 3.5 percent). (Emphasis added).Īlthough it is not stated, the margin of error presented here was probably the 95 percent confidence interval. The ABC News-Washington Post telephone poll of 1,014 adults was conducted March 8-10 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The latest ABC News-Washington Post poll showed 56 percent favored Clinton while 39 percent would vote for Dole. This is an example from the Associate Press in October 1996: Confidence intervals are often seen on the news when the results of polls are released. For most chronic disease and injury programs, the measurement in question is a proportion or a rate (the percent of New Yorkers who exercise regularly or the lung cancer incidence rate). All Health Care Professionals & Patient SafetyĬonfidence Intervals - Statistics Teaching Tools What is a confidence interval?Ī confidence interval is a range around a measurement that conveys how precise the measurement is.Clinical Guidelines, Standards & Quality of Care.Health & Safety in the Home, Workplace & Outdoors.Birth, Death, Marriage & Divorce Records. ![]()
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